Explaining Spatial Disparity in Cause-Specific Mortality in Small Areas of Brazil

Ezra Gayawan , Redeemer's University
Everton E. C. Lima, IFCH - UNICAMP

The exact knowledge of mortality causes distribution has remained a major guide for public health policies and planning of population health. In developing countries, however, such understanding imposes challenges as the epidemiological transition, in many cases, does not follows the traditional path from infectious diseases to man-made mortality. This study aims to examine if there are substantial spatial variations in five mortality causes, classified by the 10th ICD, among 645 municipalities in the Brazilian state of São Paulo, between 2014 and 2016. We applied Bayesian models and estimated explicative models according to a number of socioeconomic variables. Our results show that the years of schooling and sex play an important role to explain cause mortality differentials in these areas. As education increases, reduces males’ chances to die from neoplasm and cardiovascular diseases. However, males with more years of schooling experience more deaths due to external causes.

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 Presented in Session 18. Mortality Determinants