Changing Ideal Family Size in Egypt: A Dynamic Analysis of the Young Generations

Maria Rita Testa, Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU)
Elena Ambrosetti , Sapienza Università di Roma
Alessandra De Rose, Sapienza Università di Roma

Several Arab countries have experienced an unusual fertility increase in recent years. In Egypt fertility declined very slowly after 2000 and the trend reversed in the period from 2008 to 2014. In this paper, we aim to understand Egyptian fertility patterns looking at the determinants of ideal family size. The desire for a smaller family size is an important factor in the fertility transition process. Using the reports of the young generations (men and women aged 15 to 29 years) interviewed in different points in time, 2009 and 2014 (Survey of Young People in Egypt), we run a multinomial logistic regression on the change of ideal family size. Knowing the determinants of changing ideal family size is a key for assessing the future fertility patterns of Egypt. Moreover, our emphasis on ideals is justified by the recent target settled by the Egyptian Government aimed at reducing ideal family size.

See extended abstract

 Presented in Session P1. Poster Session Fertility, Family and the Life Course