Realization of Fertility Intentions in a Comparative Perspective: Which Macro Level Conditions Do Matter?

Zsolt Speder , Hungarian Demographic Research Institute

Previous research clearly showed the effect of different individual factors (age, partnership, parity, labour market position, attitudes) on the realization of short term (within three years) fertility intentions. The sparse comparative analyses revealed that after controlling individual factors (compositional effects) country differences remain. Our related key question is as follows: what kind of macro level factors may explain differences in realization of fertility intentions. Based on the pooled data of 11 European countries in the Generation and Gender Survey, encompassing different kinds of macro-level indicators and employing multilevel approach we seek for macro conditions that contribute to realization of fertility intention. Among the macro level factors we consider such usually explored indices as GDP per capita, unemployment, extension of the welfare state; but we also experiment with some unusual societal level factors as economic dynamism or value orientations towards having children.

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 Presented in Session 124. Fertility Intentions