Population Negative Momentum under Low Fertility in China

Zhuoyan Mao , Capital University of Economics and Bussiness
Baochang Gu, Center for Population and Development Policy Studies , Fudan University

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the population of entire world has been developed into the low fertility situation, population momentum will be the main driving force of the increasing population over almost all parts of the world. International research shows the tremendous effect of population momentum of negative growth under low fertility level. China has kept it’s fertility below replacement for almost thirty years since the early 1990s. It’s estimated population growth will turn negative after reaching its peak around 2030. However, it has been not well understood the effect of population negative momentum to the situation of China’s population under low fertility. The paper will be examining the effects of population negative momentum under low fertility in China. The study used the functions raised by Preston and Guillot (1997) to calculate the value of population momentum,and calculated cross-sectional average length of life (CAL) put forward by Michel Guillot (2003, 2005) to decompose the death and birth effects of population momentum China will enter a critical phase of its demographic evolution soon. Around the year of 2020, the population began to generate “negative momentum”. China's population momentum of positive growth mainly is due to the dramatic decline in mortality in the 20th century, rather than entirely due to high fertility. The momentum generated by mortality change in China, either in the past or in future, is the driving force to prevent or delay the population taking on the momentum of negative growth

See extended abstract

 Presented in Session P1. Poster Session Fertility, Family and the Life Course